December 6, 2016

Rasmussen Reports: White House Watch–Still A Close One

trump_vegasEarly results from their final debate are in, and Donald Trump remains barely ahead of Hillary Clinton in the White House Watch.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with a 43% to 41% lead over his Democratic rival. Five percent (5%) favor Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein earns three percent (3%) support. Another three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Yesterday, Trump was ahead by three. The lead has been shifting back and forth since late last week.

Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am Eastern based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters. This is the first survey to include a full night following the final presidential candidate debate in Las Vegas.

A new high of 88% of voters now say they are certain how they will vote in this election. Among these voters, it’s Trump 48%, Clinton 47%, Johnson three percent (3%) and Stein two percent (2%). Among voters who say they still could change their minds between now and Election Day, it’s Trump 38%, Clinton 25%, Johnson 21% and Stein 16%.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 18-20, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

[Rasmussen Reports analysts Amy Holmes  and Fran Coombs are available for interested media. Please call 732-776-9777 ext. 205 for interviews.]

Eighty percent  (80%) of voters believe this year’s presidential campaign is more negative than past campaigns.

Trump has the support of 78% of Republicans and 15% of Democrats and continues to hold a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party. Clinton has the backing of 77% of Democrats and 11% of GOP voters. Johnson has 10% of the unaffiliated vote, but both he and Stein now earn just low single-digit support among voters in both major parties.

Just over 90% of both Republicans and Democrats are certain of their vote, compared to 77% of unaffiliateds.

Twelve percent (12%) of men and 10% of women say they still could change their minds. Trump has a double-digit lead among men; Clinton has a slightly smaller lead among women.

The older the voter, the more certain they are of how they will vote. Trump continues to lead among those 40 and over, while Clinton remains ahead among younger voters. Johnson and Stein run strongest among voters under 40 who are also the likeliest age group to still be undecided.

Mitt Romney earned 17% of the black vote in 2012, and Trump appears to be running near that level. Seventy-three percent (73%) of black voters favor Clinton. Ninety-one percent (91%) of blacks say they’ve made up their minds, making them slightly more certain than whites and other minority voters.

Whites prefer Trump; other minorities like Clinton by a 20-point margin.

Newly released information shows that a State Department official offered the FBI a secret deal to take the classified rating off at least one of the e-mails that Hillary Clinton was sending around on her private e-mail server while the FBI was investigating the matter. We’ll tell you at 10:30 this morning whether voters still disagree with the FBI’s decision not to seek a criminal indictment of Clinton.

Voters now rate a candidate’s business past as more important to their vote than experience in government.

Republicans and unaffiliated voters tend to see Trump’s lifetime of business experience as good training for the White House. Most Democrats do not.

Trump continues to trash Clinton’s tenure as secretary of State, but as far as voters are concerned, it’s her biggest professional achievement.

Fortunately for both major party candidates who have been beset with questions about their honesty and integrity, most voters put their policy positions ahead of their character.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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Rasmussen Reports

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