As Americans decide control of Congress, Republicans face the traditional midterm headwinds of an unpopular war and high prices. But polling uncertainties, Democratic divisions and unusual controversies in Alaska, Michigan and Texas could complicate the expected results.
Federalist Press | November 3, 2026

WASHINGTON — Americans are voting today in one of the most consequential midterm elections in recent memory, with control of the House of Representatives and Senate at stake, an escalating conflict with Iran influencing gasoline prices, and political controversies disrupting several of the nation’s most closely watched races.
Most national political analysts expect Democrats to make substantial gains, following the historical pattern in which the president’s party loses congressional seats during midterm elections. Republicans, however, are pointing to previous polling failures, the administration’s economic record and divisions within the Democratic Party as reasons the results may differ from the prevailing forecasts.
The central question is whether today’s elections will resemble 2006, when Republicans suffered a substantial defeat during President George W. Bush’s second term, or whether Donald Trump’s political coalition will again prove more resilient than pre-election surveys suggest.
Conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt, writing in Fox News this morning, argues that Republicans have good reason to fear a repeat of 2006, but also identifies important differences between the two elections.
In 2006, Republicans lost 30 House seats and six Senate seats. Today, the GOP begins with a narrow House majority and a 53–47 advantage in the Senate. Democrats need a net gain of only three House seats to control that chamber, while the Senate presents a considerably more difficult challenge requiring four additional seats.
Are the Pollsters Underestimating Republicans Again?
Perhaps the most intriguing Election Day question concerns the reliability of political polling.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten has repeatedly examined the tendency of Republican candidates to outperform surveys in several Midwestern states. In September, he noted that Republicans exceeded their September 2024 polling numbers by nine points in Iowa, six points in Ohio and five points in Michigan. Similar polling discrepancies appeared in major statewide races during the 2018 midterms.
Those historical errors matter because Democrats entered the final weeks of this election with polling leads in several contests that were smaller than the previous Republican overperformance.
Hewitt highlighted another concern in today’s Fox News column. According to figures reported by The Washington Post, pollsters attempting to measure the Kansas Senate race made approximately 85,000 telephone calls and sent 50,000 text messages. Their response rate among Democrats was 32 percent, compared with just 12 percent among Republicans.
That discrepancy raises legitimate concerns about nonresponse bias, particularly if Republican voters who decline to participate differ politically from those who answer surveys. Professional pollsters attempt to compensate through weighting and other statistical techniques, but those adjustments are not always successful.
There are also reasons for caution. Polling errors vary between elections, states and individual races. A Republican advantage in one election does not guarantee the same advantage in another. Enten himself warned in late October that an apparent four-point Republican improvement between registered-voter and likely-voter Senate polling was unusually large by historical standards.
The polls are therefore an imperfect guide rather than evidence of a predetermined result. The actual composition of today’s electorate will determine whether Republicans again exceed expectations.
Michigan: A Democratic Senate Candidate Loses His Primary Opponent to the GOP
Michigan has produced one of the election’s most extraordinary political developments.
Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive former county health director who supports universal health care, is facing former Republican congressman Mike Rogers for the seat being vacated by Senator Gary Peters.
But on Sunday, Representative Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic primary to El-Sayed, publicly endorsed Rogers. She subsequently explained that her decision reflected serious concerns about El-Sayed and her belief that his campaign had failed to include the voters who supported her.
The endorsement stunned Michigan Democrats. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and state party officials condemned Stevens’s decision, while President Trump welcomed it.
The controversy follows a bitter primary involving disagreements over Israel, progressive economic policies and the direction of the Democratic Party. El-Sayed has emphasized health care and affordability while seeking to expand Democratic turnout among younger voters and working-class communities. Rogers has emphasized his national-security experience and criticized his opponent’s positions.
Stevens’s defection illustrates a broader tension within Democratic politics between progressive candidates and more centrist party figures. Whether that division materially affects the election remains unknown, but it has become a major issue in one of the nation’s most important Senate contests.
Alaska: The Mystery of the Two Dan Sullivans
In Alaska, the controversy surrounding the appearance of two Senate candidates named Dan Sullivan has become a national story.
Republican incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan is facing Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, along with another candidate, Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher from Petersburg.
Republicans alleged for months that the second Sullivan had been recruited to confuse voters and draw support away from the incumbent. The allegations acquired substantial documentary support when The New York Times published an October 28 investigation describing an organized candidate-recruitment effort involving people associated with Peltola’s campaign and national Democratic campaign personnel.
According to the newspaper, operatives searched for Alaskans named Dan Sullivan and worked to encourage additional candidates to enter the contest. Peltola’s campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee have denied involvement, and the extent of Peltola’s personal knowledge remains disputed.
The controversy has prompted state and federal investigations and legal proceedings concerning the election. Recruiting candidates to divide an opponent’s support is not automatically illegal, and no court has established that the operation constituted criminal election fraud.
Nevertheless, the disclosures have placed unusual scrutiny on Alaska’s election process, particularly because the state uses ranked-choice voting. The final outcome may require additional counting rounds, and the legal disputes could extend beyond Election Day.
Texas: James Talarico’s Political Balancing Act
Texas presents another test of the Democratic Party’s ability to compete in a traditionally Republican state.
Democrat James Talarico, a former state legislator whose campaign emphasizes Christian faith, education and economic fairness, is challenging Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general.
Talarico has attempted to appeal to voters beyond the Democratic base by emphasizing shared values and economic concerns. Republicans have countered by drawing attention to his progressive policy positions and questioning whether his general-election presentation accurately reflects his political record.
The campaign has become a contest over both ideology and credibility. Talarico argues that his religious beliefs and economic message can attract voters who have grown disillusioned with partisan politics. Paxton emphasizes conservative priorities and seeks to connect his opponent to positions unpopular among Republican-leaning Texans.
Claims that Talarico has reversed specific campaign pledges should be evaluated against his original statements and subsequent explanations. Political moderation, a change in emphasis and an actual policy reversal are not necessarily the same thing.
Texas has attracted substantial national attention because its Senate election could influence the balance of power in Washington and reveal whether Democrats can expand their appeal in a state Republicans have dominated for decades.
The Economy: Strong Growth Meets High Living Costs
President Trump’s economic record presents both an opportunity and a challenge for Republican candidates.
Hewitt points to third-quarter economic growth of 3.4 percent, more than twice the initially reported growth rate during the comparable quarter of 2006. Republicans also emphasize the administration’s tax policies, border enforcement and efforts to expand domestic economic activity.
But voters encounter the economy primarily through household expenses, and those figures present a less favorable picture.
According to the comparisons in Hewitt’s column, inflation stands at approximately 3.7 percent, gasoline averages around $4.20 per gallon nationally, and 30-year mortgage rates are approximately 7.25 percent.
The ongoing conflict with Iran has added pressure to energy markets, complicating the administration’s economic message. Supporters of the president argue that confronting Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional activities is necessary for long-term security. Critics question the military strategy, its costs and the resulting pressure on American households.
The 2025 American strikes severely damaged Iranian nuclear facilities, but subsequent developments have demonstrated that the conflict and questions about Iran’s nuclear capabilities remain unresolved.
Voters must weigh the administration’s economic and national-security objectives against the immediate financial pressures they experience.
That tension may be especially important in suburban House districts, where high housing costs, fuel expenses and household budgets can influence voters who are otherwise divided over national politics.
The House: Dozens of Races, a Narrow Republican Majority
All 435 House seats are on today’s ballot, and Democrats need only a small net gain to take control.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has moved numerous districts toward Democrats during the closing weeks of the campaign. NPR identified approximately 70 districts where both parties have invested at least six figures in late advertising, illustrating the breadth of the competitive map.
Among the contests attracting particular attention are Arizona’s 1st District, where Republican Jay Feely faces Democrat Amish Shah, and Arizona’s 6th District, where Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani faces Democrat JoAnna Mendoza.
Other important races include Republican Mike Lawler’s contest against Democrat Cait Conley in New York’s 17th District, Republican Bryan Steil’s race in Wisconsin’s 1st District, and competitive districts in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina.
Redistricting has further complicated the picture. Republican-controlled states have altered boundaries in ways intended to improve GOP opportunities, while Democratic-controlled states have pursued changes benefiting their candidates.
The House contest is therefore not simply a national referendum on Trump. It is also a collection of local elections shaped by candidate reputations, district boundaries, spending and the issues most important to individual communities.
The Senate: Candidate Differences Could Matter as Much as Party Labels
Beyond Michigan, Alaska and Texas, several other Senate contests deserve attention.
In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson, a progressive former state legislative leader. Collins’s reputation for independence and Jackson’s economic-populist platform offer voters contrasting approaches in a state known for ticket splitting.
In Ohio, Republican Senator Jon Husted faces former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, whose campaign seeks to revive the working-class coalition that previously supported him.
In Kansas, Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton in a contest that has drawn attention because of unexpectedly competitive polling.
Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff is defending his seat in a state that remains closely divided, while other races in Minnesota, Florida and South Carolina have attracted varying degrees of national interest.
Republicans begin the election with a numerical advantage in the Senate, but the chamber’s eventual composition will depend on several distinct statewide electorates rather than a single national voting pattern.
What Tonight’s Results Will Actually Tell Us
There are several important questions that election returns may begin answering tonight.
Will Republican turnout exceed the expectations built into pre-election polling? Will Democratic gains be concentrated in suburban House districts, or will they extend into states and communities that have recently supported Trump? Will progressive Democratic candidates perform differently from more moderate nominees? And will the Iran conflict and high gasoline prices outweigh arguments about economic growth and national security?
The answers may not arrive immediately.
Alaska and Maine use ranked-choice voting, while several states process large numbers of mail ballots after Election Day. Closely divided House districts could require days of additional counting before control of Congress becomes clear.
The election also provides a test of the reliability of political forecasts. If Republicans outperform polling again, analysts will need to examine whether turnout models and survey participation adequately captured the electorate. If Democrats meet or exceed expectations, the results will reinforce the significance of the traditional midterm disadvantage facing the president’s party.
Neither outcome, by itself, would prove deliberate manipulation by pollsters or the news media. But either would provide valuable evidence about the strengths and weaknesses of the political assumptions that shaped this campaign.
A Country Divided, an Election Full of Uncertainty
The 2026 midterms have brought together an unusual combination of forces: a president serving a nonconsecutive second term, an overseas military conflict, stubbornly high living costs, ideological disagreements within both parties, contentious redistricting and allegations of political manipulation in individual races.
The Democrats are seeking to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the administration and the historical tendency of voters to check presidential power. Republicans are defending their governing record while questioning whether the polling and political commentary accurately reflect the electorate.
The most consequential factor, however, is not a television forecast, a campaign advertisement or a historical comparison. It is the actual decision made by millions of Americans casting ballots today.
The political experts have offered their expectations. Now the voters will provide the evidence.
And when the ballots are counted, the country may discover whether 2026 was another 2006, a repudiation of conventional polling wisdom, or something entirely different.































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